Not too many people out crabbing here, so not too many reports. There's crab, but the report isn't too different from the last few reports. A few from the beach, a few more from boats in the bay, and even better numbers from the outer bay when you can get there. That hasn't been very often, but when it happens I eat crab (Thanks Tim and Ed!). Fishing reports are even slimmer as fishermen just aren't fishing here right now. The days are getting longer, which means that at some point the water will warm and the fish will bite. Not yet, though.

     The CDFW had their salmon information meeting today. This isn't where they decide what the regulations will be, but it's where they give us the data that the PFMC will base their decisions upon. The data ain't good. Only 61,850 adult salmon returned to the river last year, and we need (we're told) at least 122,000 salmon. Half of the necessary fish returning is bad. The jack (2-year old fish) count was 6,996. The jacks (the two year old males) are the lead indicator of how many three year olds can be expected the following season. Indications are that there will be something like 169,000 salmon in the ocean this year. That may be enough for some kind of season. Not a good one or a long one, but maybe a sport season. Commercial, not so much. CDFW doesn't make the rules for salmon, but they can toss a few ideas to the guys that do. At the end of the presentation there was a slide with these four recommendation lines:"

   Manage California ocean fisheries in-season to keep catch within projections

   Close fisheries on attainment to prevent overages

   For commercial fisheries, use vessel-based trip limits

   For recreational fisheries, ability to reduce bag limits" Take this to mean that if we get to fish it will likely be for a shorter season with a one-fish limit and the season may end earlier than planned if we do well. I was expecting a "no fishing" signal, so "less fishing" seems better. The halibut are begging for a salmon season of some kind. Well, halibut fishermen are. It's the one thing that halibut fishermen and salmon fishermen can totally agree upon. 

   Two take aways from data I read today. One is that there are currently 1008 commercial salmon permits in California. Last year about half of those actually fished for salmon. Of those, about 60 of them caught half of the commercial catch. Just like us sporties, a few guys catch the lion's share. Another thing I looked up due to info in the meeting was the 2019 salmon return report for tagged fish. It says that in 2019, an estimated 271,000 salmon returned to the Central Valley basins, and of them, 114,000 were sampled. Of those sampled, 32,600 were fin-clipped. That's 28% of the fish sampled. If one hatchery fish in four is tagged, it would seem to indicate that all of the returning fish were hatchery fish. I'm sure that I'm reading that wrong, but it seems bad for non-factory fish. 

    Tyeebones had a hard time making the comments work, so he emailed his comment over. I copy-and-paste it here for him:"Tried to comment about this but I can’t seem to get onto your blog but I got a couple things to say first of all the 180 thousand salmon minimum ceiling is the upper minimum ceiling the bottom minimum ceiling is 122,000 fish James stone president of the guides And sportsman Association got put on the salmon counsel and advice fishing game to raise the ceiling from 122,000 two 180,000 fish were they were going to make up that 58,000 fish difference was by shortening the commercial seasons and that backfired I’m not sure what their agenda is besides getting more fish for the river fisherman but now it seems clear to me that this could’ve been a ploy to not make the minimum escapement to shut the seasons down and To get money for the river guides done ranting thanks Willy"  

  For a counter point, here's the CDFWs press release about today's presentation: "

Fishery Scientists Announce Poor 2023 Outlook for California’s Ocean Salmon Stocks 

At the annual Salmon Information Meeting held virtually today, state and federal fishery scientists presented the numbers of spawning salmon that returned to California’s rivers late in 2022 and announced the abundance forecasts for key California stocks. The 2023 projection for Sacramento River fall Chinook, the most predominant stock harvested in California’s fisheries, is estimated at 169,767 adults, one of the lowest forecasts since 2008 when the current assessment method began. For Klamath River fall Chinook the forecast is 103,793 adults which is the second lowest forecast since the current assessment method began in 1997. While low and disappointing, neither abundance forecast is the lowest recorded. In 2009, the Sacramento forecast was 122,200 and in 2017, the Klamath forecast was 54,200. 

Salmon numbers are episodic over time and life cycles, which is generally a three year period from birth as eggs hatching to returning adults from the ocean. For example, in 2022 ocean commercial catch was considerably greater than preseason expectations. The data also indicates in years following wetter hydrologic years that abundance is higher. For example, the 2010 above average rainfall year resulted in higher stock forecasts of California adult Chinook in 2012 and 2013. 

Conversely drier years regularly result in lower abundance three years later. Three years ago, in 2020, conditions were particularly severe with drought. 

“This is a decades-long trend, and the past few years of record drought only further stressed our salmon populations,” said Charlton H. Bonham, Director of the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW). “Unfortunately, low stock abundance is somewhat expected despite protective and restorative actions California has taken to increase hatchery production, improve release strategies, and increase the availability of critical spawning and rearing habitats.” 

The current wetter weather in California is good news. Relatively higher returns in 2019 and 2020 may help boost the number of spawning adults returning to the Sacramento Basin in 2023, as fish hatched in 2019 and 2020 will be returning this year. Even though this boost will be moderated by evolving ocean conditions and ongoing climate disruption, there are bright spots and reasons for caution heading into 2023 and beyond. Rebuilding plans have been developed for the Sacramento River Fall Chinook and Klamath River Fall Chinook stocks after multi-agency collaboration between the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC), CDFW, National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Tribes and industry representatives. Meanwhile, other ambitious efforts to rebuild salmon are continuing, most notably implementation of the largest river restoration and dam removal project in the nation’s history in the Klamath Basin. 

The Salmon Information Meeting was attended by fishing industry participants, conservation organizations and other interested parties. During the meeting, ocean and in-river recreational anglers and commercial salmon trollers asked questions about the latest numbers and provided comments during a public listening session that followed the informational presentations. Stakeholder input will be taken into consideration when developing three ocean fishery season alternatives during the March 5-10 PFMC meeting. Final ocean salmon season regulations will be adopted at the PFMC’s April 1-7 meeting. The California Fish and Game Commission will consider and approve inland fishery seasons and regulations this spring, with final decisions in May. 

Following several years of poor returns to the Klamath River Basin, Klamath River fall Chinook salmon were declared overfished in 2018 and have not yet achieved a rebuilt status under the terms of the federal Salmon Fishery Management Plan. In 2022, returns of Sacramento River fall Chinook fell well short of conservation objectives, and now may be approaching an overfished condition after being declared rebuilt in 2021. In response, federal and state agencies are expected to take a conservative approach when approving 2023 salmon seasons to provide additional protective measures to these stocks, and very limited or no fishing in 2023 appears possible. 

To access materials and information presented at today’s meeting or to learn more about the salmon season setting process, please visit CDFW’s Salmon Preseason Process web page. General ocean salmon fishing information can be found on CDFW’s Ocean Salmon Project web page or by calling the CDFW Ocean Salmon Hotline at (707) 576-3429."